October to December 2024
Three articles, featuring "The 2024 State of the Climate Report."
The 2024 State of the Climate Report: Perilous Times on Planet Earth
Summary
This is the 2024 update from a cross-discipline collaborative group of scientists who have been sounding the alarm of the impending climate change and biodiversity crisis. In this report they “analyze the latest trends in a wide array of planetary vital signs” and “review notable recent climate-related disasters, spotlight important climate-related topics, and discuss needed policy interventions” (page 1).
Key Points
This article provides a thorough overview of climate developments and research over the previous year, such as record-breaking temperatures (both oceanic and ambient), the impacts of severe weather, and increased human consumption patterns.
The authors conclude: ”We must urgently reduce ecological overshoot and pursue immediate large-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation to limit near-term damage. Only through decisive action can we safeguard the natural world, avert profound human suffering, and ensure that future generations inherit the livable world they deserve. The future of humanity hangs in the balance”.
Source
BioScience is a “peer-reviewed, heavily cited, monthly journal with content written and edited for accessibility to researchers, educators, and students alike.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This report underscores how the changing climate presents multiple threats to humanity, especially those in poorer areas of the world. Without rapid mitigation, it is likely that the institutions that steward digital materials will face economic issues and potential political unrest, placing materials at much greater risk than they would be in stable environments.
Full citation
Ripple, W. J., Wolf, C., Gregg, J. W., Rockström, J., Mann, M. E., Oreskes, N., Lenton, T. M., Rahmstorf, S., Newsome, T. M., Xu, C., Svenning, J.-C., Pereira, C. C., Law, B. E., & Crowther, T. W. (2024). The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth. BioScience, biae087. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087
U.N. Emissions Gap Report 2024
Summary
The annual emissions gap report looks at countries' intended reduction in greenhouse gases and what they've actually achieved. Emissions set a record in the calendar year of 2023 with power, transportation, and agriculture being the leading sectors. They come largely from the most developed countries with the largest economies while lesser developed countries contribute very little. With current projections, even if countries meet their pledged emissions amounts, the probability is still very high that warming meets or exceeds the 1.5°C target.
Key Points
Countries need to take drastic action soon to keep emissions on track for the 1.5°C or even 2.0°C warming targets; the window is narrowing for the 1.5°C target to be possible even if countries meet their emissions goals.
"It is both cost-effective and fair for the G20 to reduce emissions faster than the global average" (page XVIII).
Waste reduction, renewable energy (wind and solar), and reduced deforestation/reforestation hold the most emissions reduction potential.
Source
The United Nations.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This resource underscores the gravity of our situation and outlines areas for necessary improvement if we are to contain global warming. It does not directly mention digital preservation but might be a good resource for high-level planning.
Full citation
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2024). Emissions Gap Report 2024 (No. 15; Emissions Gap Report). https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2024
Planetary Health Check: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet
Summary
Global warming is not the only indicator that humans have been negatively impacting the planet’s environmental stability. The Planetary Boundaries Framework presents a more holistic view of the Earth’s critical systems. The framework “identifies the nine Earth system processes essential for maintaining global stability, resilience and life-support functions. These boundaries represent the safe operating limits for each process, beyond which the risk of causing severe and potentially irreversible environmental changes increases. Staying within these boundaries helps ensure that the Earth system remains stable and capable of supporting life and human development” (page 4). This report, the Planetary Health Check, is the first annual report of the latest science on measuring the status of the Planetary Boundaries.
Key Points
This is the inaugural annual report on the Planetary Boundaries. Much like an annual doctor's exam, it can be thought of as an annual report on the health of the Earth.
Both the website and report are useful and contain illustrative graphics. (CC BY 4.0 license, so they are OK to reproduce).
The current health check shows that we have breached six of the nine Planetary Boundaries “with all six showing trends of increasing pressure in all control variables, suggesting further boundary transgression in the near future” (page 5). This indicates that in addition to Climate Change (which is just one of the boundaries), humanity needs to address the other boundaries of Biosphere Integrity, Land System Change, Freshwater Change, Modification of Biogeochemical Flows, and Introduction of Novel Entities. Solutions that focus solely on one boundary may come at the expense of further transgression of other boundaries.
Source
The Planetary Boundaries work is generated by the Stockholm Resilience Center based in Stockholm University. It is a collaboration led by Johan Rockström and many multidisciplinary renowned scientists.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
It is easy to focus solely on global warming and mitigating climate change through reducing carbon footprints. The Planetary Boundaries framework shows that this is not enough, and that narrow sightedness may affect other planetary functions, for example, the deforestation (Land-System Change boundary) and loss of habitat for animals (Biosphere Integrity boundary) that occurs when land is taken over by data centers. The Planetary Health Check is important as an annual assessment of where each of the nine boundaries stands at that point in time, so we can track how boundaries may improve or be increasingly breached.
Full citation
L. Caesar, B. Sakschewski, L. S. Andersen, T. Beringer, J. Braun, D. Dennis, D. Gerten, A. Heilemann, J. Kaiser, N.H. Kitzmann, S. Loriani, W. Lucht, J. Ludescher, M. Martin, S. Mathesius, A. Paolucci, S. te Wierik, & J. Rockström. (2024). Planetary Health Check 2024: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. https://planetaryhealthcheck.org/storyblok-cdn/f/301438/x/a4efc3f6d5/planetaryhealthcheck2024_report.pdf