January to March 2026
Thirteen articles, including “Without Big Changes, This is What the Environment Will Look Like in 2050”
This first bibliography of 2026 features new reports from the United Nations, several studies into the anticipated impacts of climate change across the globe, news from the US, and other resources to keep you informed.
The United Nations released findings from “Global Environment Outlook 7,” the most comprehensive scientific assessment of the global environment ever collected. Meanwhile, the new “Recalibrating Climate Risk” report takes a sobering look at the flawed economic models around climate change to suggest that accelerating impacts could cause a global financial collapse.
Several resources examine the anticipated impacts of climate change on global water systems, grazing lands and the societies/economies that depend on them, and nature’s ability to adapt to a changing planet. And a new study quantifies—for the first time—the role of ocean fronts in absorbing carbon dioxide on a global scale.
In the UK, an investigation found that government officials buried a report correlating environmental degradation and national security risks and new reporting suggests that tech companies are conflating machine learning and generative AI to claim, without evidence, that AI can help reduce climate change, all while generative AI demands unprecedented amounts of energy.
In US news, several federal agencies are working to fill the EPA’s carbon tracking gap with the release of a new emissions map. The US withdrawal from both the Green Climate Fund and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change continues a troubling trend, and an analysis shows US politicians are avoiding the language of climate change while still engaging in adaptation and mitigation activities in their communities. Likewise, in the EU, a leading researcher is warning that Europe must prepare for climate change by taking “doable” steps towards disaster preparedness. The latest release in the “Planetary Health Check” series confirms that we have crossed a seventh planetary boundary over the last year.
That’s all from the team here at NDSA Climate Watch. We hope you find this quarter’s bibliography informative. The news can be bleak, but always remember that knowledge is power.
Claims that AI Can Help Fix Climate Dismissed as Greenwashing
Summary
The article discusses the report, “The AI Climate Hoax: Behind the Curtain of How Big Tech Greenwashes Impacts,” and how tech companies are conflating machine learning and generative AI to claim that AI can help reduce climate change. While there are claims that traditional AI (e.g., predictive models, extractive models) can help avert climate breakdown, there is no evidence that generative AI could have a similar impact. According to the report, even the assertion that traditional AI can assist with the crisis is based on weak evidence that has not been independently verified. Ketan Joshi, the author of the report, states that the methods used by the tech industry amount to “greenwashing.”
Key Points
The report “did not find a single example where popular tools such as Google’s Gemini or Microsoft’s Copilot were leading to a ‘material, verifiable, and substantial reduction in planet-heating emissions.”
The analysis “argues the tech industry has misleadingly presented climate solutions and carbon pollution as a package deal by ‘muddling’ types of AI.”
Currently, datacenters consume 1% of the world’s electricity, “but their share of US electricity is projected to more than double to 8.6% by 2035.”
Source
News article published in The Guardian.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
AI, especially generative AI, is driving unprecedented energy consumption and the need for more data centers. Those engaged in digital preservation should keep in mind how AI impacts the climate and consider the ramifications when using AI in digital preservation workflows.
Full citation
Niranjan, A. (2026, February 17). Claims that AI can help fix climate dismissed as greenwashing. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/feb/17/tech-companies-traditional-ai-generative-climate-breakdown-report
‘Daunting but Doable’: Europe Urged to Prepare for 3C of Global Heating
Summary
Climate researcher Maarten van Aalst warns that Europe must prepare for a hotter future, potentially one much warmer than the 1.5°C increase identified in the Paris Agreement. However, he states that adapting for this warmer reality “... is a daunting task, but at the same time quite a doable task. It’s not rocket science.” Europe has sometimes been caught unprepared by extreme weather in recent years, with hundreds dying in different regions due to flooding.
Key Points
The EU’s climate advisory board urges countries to prepare for a catastrophic 3° C of global heating.
Current adaptation efforts are insufficient but can be improved.
Mandatory climate risk assessments and more money for protective measures are recommended.
Source
The Guardian is a premier international news source.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Focusing on the practical, known steps institutions can take to prepare for even the most severe warming scenarios makes adaptation more feasible.
Full citation
Niranjan, A. (2026, February 16). ‘Daunting but doable’: Europe urged to prepare for 3C of global heating. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/feb/16/europe-climate-advisory-board-3c-global-heating
Nature’s ‘Engine is Grinding to a Halt’ as Climate Change Gains Pace, Says Study
Summary
A study at Queen Mary, University of London indicates that, despite accelerating climate change, the natural rate of species turnover in ecosystems is slowing down, reducing their ability to adapt and self-repair. Researchers found that the expected rapid migration of species to new habitats—”reshuffling of ecological communities”— has decreased by about one-third since the 1970s, challenging traditional ecological assumptions. Dr Emammuel Nwankwo concludes that “it is worrying.”
Key Points
The impact of human activities are degrading habitats and reducing regional species variety, limiting their ability to adapt and self-repair.
The reduced reshuffling of ecological communities is causing a dramatic slowing of turnover, which “may indicate that the internal engines of biodiversity are losing momentum due to the depletion of regional life.”
Source
Phys.org is a leading online news aggregator focusing on science, research, and technology, covering fields like physics, engineering, biology, and space.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
For digital preservation, this is a critical “catch-22”: while digital archiving aims to save at-risk physical heritage, the infrastructure required to maintain these digital assets is itself a significant contributor to climate change and biodiversity loss. To alleviate this environmental impact, digital preservation is creating sustainable and strategic practices, such as using dark archives and tape storage, and distributing digital data in various locations based on climate threats and impacts to the surrounding environment.
Full citation
Queen Mary, University of London. (2026, February 9). Nature’s ‘engine is grinding to a halt’ as climate change gains pace, says study. Phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2026-02-nature-halt-climate-gains-pace.html
Climate Change Drives a Decline in Global Grazing Systems
Summary
This study projects that the climatic conditions of 36% to 50% of “grassland-based extensive grazing systems” will no longer be suitable for raising cattle, sheep, and goats by 2100. These grazing systems account for one-third of the Earth’s surface and span every continent. The affected regions correlate “significantly with regions already suffering from severe poverty, hunger, and political fragility,” and are expected to impact over 100 million people, many of whom “rely entirely on grazing for their livelihoods,” and some 1.4 billion livestock over time.
Key Points
The core climatic drivers of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and radiation were studied to define a “safe climatic space” in which grasslands are suitable for cattle, goats, and sheep to graze.
The suitability of grazing systems in Oceania, Europe, Africa, and South America is expected to decline drastically, driven especially by rising temperatures.
“A decline in grazing suitability in these regions, where pastoralism also has deep historical and cultural significance, at the same time serving as a critical means of land stewardship and subsistence, may induce systemic outcomes across environmental, social, economic, and even political spheres.”
Source
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, or PNAS, is the “flagship peer-reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences” in the United States and publishes research from the biological, physical, and social sciences. This research was conducted at the German government-funded Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
The impacts of climate change on physical environments will cut across social, cultural, economic, political, and public health dimensions. The digital stewardship community should move toward a holistic assessment of risk and adaptation to account for the ripple effects of these changes not only for digital preservation practice and practitioner wellbeing, but also for deciding on priorities to support the preservation of cultural and historical knowledge of impacted communities.
Full citation
Li, C., Kotz, M., Pradhan, P., Wu, X., Hu, Y., Li, Z., & Chen, G. (2026). Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(7), e2534015123. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2534015123
Recalibrating Climate Risk: Aligning Damage Functions with Scientific Understanding
Summary
“The accelerating impact of the climate crisis could lead to a global financial crash,” according to an article from The Guardian on the “Recalibrating Climate Risk” report. The authors of the report find that most current economic frameworks operate on the flawed assumption that climate change is and will continue to be “a marginal shock to otherwise stable economic systems.” In reality, the impacts of climate change cut across regions, sectors, and natural and human systems, with cumulative and reinforcing effects.
As such, “climate change is likely to reshape economic structures themselves,” and “risks that alter system structure cannot be assessed using models designed for small, reversible shocks.” To address the “gap between scientists and economists’ expectations of future climate damages” and the “widespread complacency” resulting from it, this report “examines how risks evolve as warming increases and where conventional economic models begin to fail,” and outlines steps to broaden climate risk assessment “beyond asset-level exposure toward system-wide vulnerability.”
Key Points
Local and regional extremes in climate “dominate systemic risk,” not the global averages that are currently used in economic modeling and damage functions. These extremes dictate how “societies and markets experience climate change” and “cascade through interconnected systems,” which not only impacts “traditional drivers of instability” but also generates “system-wide shocks.” Given this, GDP—which represents the monetary market value of all final goods and services in a given period and location—is a similarly inadequate measure of the actual societal, environmental, and economic harms caused.
Traditional economic models assume continuous growth based on the logic of “linearity, continuity, and stable preferences.” Combined with the assumption of climate change as “a marginal shock,” however, they “rely excessively on extrapolation beyond observed climate conditions, suppress non-linear impacts, and convey false precision at policy-relevant warming levels.”
Climate change does not abide by this logic and uncertainty increases with warming. “As the climate system moves further from historical conditions, physical responses become less predictable, social and economic reactions become harder to model, and the likelihood of unprecedented outcomes increases.” As such, “at sufficiently high levels of warming, economic models may no longer provide meaningful guidance.”
“The appropriate response is not to wait for perfect models, but to recalibrate governance toward precaution, robustness, and transparency” and “ensure the resilience of the financial system against destabilising outcomes.”
Source
This research was conducted by researchers at the University of Exeter’s Green Futures Solutions and independent financial think tank Carbon Tracker, with funding from the Aurora Trust. “It brings together expert judgement from 68 climate scientists across 12 countries.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Assessments of the economic landscape and how it may change as climate impacts continue to evolve are essential to resourcing and maintaining digital preservation. Economic outlooks should be interpreted with the limitations identified in this report in mind. Climate and other reports from financial and economic perspectives could be read alongside each other to better calibrate projections and planning around financing and risk. Although geared towards financial markets, the recommendations of this report are also relevant to the digital stewardship community. Risk assessments should move away from singular best-case scenarios to consider a broad range of “extremes, compounding effects, tail risks, and systemic vulnerability” across a range of potential outcomes. Communities, practitioners, and organizations must also “explicitly acknowledge the limits of [our] knowledge” about climate futures to “ensure that climate scenarios support risk management under deep uncertainty.”
Full citation
Bampton, B. D., Abrams, J., & Hu, S. (2026). Recalibrating Climate Risk. University of Exeter and Carbon Tracker. https://greenfuturessolutions.com/news/recalibrating-climate-risk/
A UK Climate Security Report Backed by the Intelligence Services was Quietly Buried – A Pattern We’ve Seen Many Times Before
Summary
A recent report by UK government entities on environmental degradation and security risks was blocked from publication. A shorter version of the report was eventually released due to external pressure and a Freedom of Information request. The report states that critical ecosystems supporting life are under stress and present a national security risk. The article suggests that the report’s stark warnings about ecosystem collapse, food insecurity, conflict, and geopolitical instability were politically inconvenient, reflecting a broader pattern of governments downplaying or suppressing environmental risks despite mounting scientific and security evidence.
Key Points
This article is another example of withholding information about how bad the climate situation is.
Some of the issues the redacted report covers reflect how the global climate situation will affect the UK. For example, “Britain, which imports 40% of its food, would struggle to feed itself.” Nuclear war and mass migration are also covered as potential consequences of the climate crisis.
The article does not directly link to the report, which states: “If current rates of biodiversity loss continue, every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse“ (HM Government, “Global biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security,” 7).
Source
The Conversation is a nonprofit news outlet that publishes research-based articles by academics (and edited by journalists). It is funded mainly by universities, foundations, governments, and some corporate and reader support, rather than by advertising.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
While this information departs significantly from mainstream media reports, burying this information instead of using it to rally support for the change needed to prevent the worst from happening allows the current path to continue on its dreadful course. If the cultural heritage field wants to preserve information through this potential future, it will need to honestly re-assess its current practices and ask difficult questions about what information truly needs to persist and how to make this possible during tumultuous times.
Full citation
Hudson, M. (2026, February 3). A UK climate security report backed by the intelligence services was quietly buried – a pattern we’ve seen many times before. The Conversation. https://doi.org/10.64628/AB.fjjedacs5
Ocean Fronts Revealed as Key Players in Earth’s Carbon Cycle
Summary
This article summarizes information from the study “Global trends in ocean fronts and impacts on the air-sea CO2 flux and chlorophyll concentrations,” published in the journal Nature Climate Change. The study demonstrates that the ocean has a much greater role in regulating the carbon cycle than previously thought. The study analyzed two decades of satellite data tracking the global occurrence of ocean fronts and how they change. The findings show that the ocean fronts, areas of abundant marine life, cover 36% of the global ocean, but account for 72% of the ocean’s total absorption of carbon dioxide. The locations of the most common ocean fronts appear to be shifting from mid- to high-latitude regions toward the poles. This means that the carbon capture ability of some fronts is weakening while those moving toward the poles are strengthening, with an uptake of twice the global average.
Key Points
This study marks the first time scientists can quantify the role of ocean fronts in absorbing carbon dioxide on a global scale.
“The world’s oceans have absorbed about 26% of human carbon emissions between 2013 and 2022, slowing the pace of climate change. But whether oceans can maintain this capacity as they warm remains a critical unknown.”
Source
Phys.org is a leading online news aggregator focusing on science, research, and technology, covering fields like physics, engineering, biology, and space.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This research suggests that the pace of climate change may accelerate if the capacity of oceans, along with other ecosystems such as forests, to absorb carbon emissions decreases over time. Digital preservation practitioners must consider that there may be less time to prepare for the effects of a changing climate than previously assumed from historical data.
Full citation
University of Tasmania. (2026, January 27). Ocean fronts revealed as key players in Earth’s carbon cycle. Phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2026-01-ocean-fronts-revealed-key-players.html
Global Water Bankruptcy: Living Beyond Our Hydrological Means in the Post Crisis Era
Summary
“The world is living beyond its hydrological means,” with global water systems insolvent and damages to natural water capital irreversible, according to a new report by Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH). These conditions constitute water bankruptcy, a persistent state in which “long-term water use has exceeded renewable inflows and safe depletion limits, causing irreversible or effectively irreversible degradation such that previous levels of water supply and ecosystem functions cannot realistically be restored.” Waste, salinization, and other processes continue to further reduce the volume of water that is safe for humans to use.
Key Points
Water bankruptcy goes beyond the more commonly known states of “water stress” and “water crisis,” which suggest—incorrectly for many regions—that conditions are reversible and shocks are temporary and surmountable. Already, nearly 75% of the world’s population lives in countries classified as “water-insecure” or “critically water-insecure,” and, according to separate analyses by the Guardian, Watershed Investigations, and researchers from the University College London, 38 of the world’s largest cities are located in regions experiencing “extremely high water stress.” The World Bank further notes that global freshwater reserves declined by over 320 billion cubic metres per year for the past twenty years, yet global water consumption rose by 25% over the same period.
Our bankrupt systems are the result of human-induced drought, and the environmental impacts of this are already “visible on every continent: rivers that no longer reach the sea; lakes, wetlands, and glaciers that have shrunk or disappeared; aquifers pumped down until land subsides and salt intrudes; forests and peatlands drying and burning; deserts and dust storms expanding; and cities repeatedly brought to the brink of ‘Day Zero.’”
Human societies are not immune either: at roughly 70%, “... agriculture accounts for the vast majority of freshwater use, and food systems are tightly interconnected through trade and prices. When water scarcity undermines farming in one region, the effects ripple through global markets, political stability, and food security elsewhere. This makes water bankruptcy not a series of isolated local crises, but a shared global risk.”
“Water bankruptcy is not about how wet or dry a place looks, but about balance, accounting, and sustainability,” according to a UN press release. The report calls for a break from short-term crisis management that “aims to survive a shock and get back to the previous normal” and may cause further damages in the long run, to adaptive bankruptcy management that “acknowledges the failure of the current development system and water management model and irreversibility of some damages, while recognizing the urgency of preventing additional damages through transformative reforms.”
Source
This report was published by the UNU-INWEH. The UNU is “a global think tank and postgraduate teaching organization within the United Nations System” and the INWEH branch conducts research and training to “resolve pressing water, environmental, and health challenges that are of concern to the United Nations, its Member States, and their people.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Globalization means that water systems are “interconnected through trade, migration, climate feedbacks, and geopolitical dependencies” and the “global risk landscape is now fundamentally altered” by the bankruptcy of our water systems. The risks for digital preservation are manifold, and practitioners and organizations should prepare and adapt for both direct and indirect impacts of structural water imbalances. This may look like rising costs for manufacturing, maintaining, and operating digital infrastructure and related components and systems; reallocated funds for basic needs like food and water; decreases in system reliability or availability due to overheating or geopolitical tensions; or damage to physical buildings and infrastructure due to land subsistence, flooding, or wildfires. Digital preservation is also about people, and water is necessary for life. Preservationists should monitor and prepare for the impacts to individuals and communities that may surface as water rationing, worsening health conditions and public health crises, a lack of access to potable water, or social, economic, or political instability.
Full citation
Madani, K. (2026). Global water bankruptcy: Living beyond our hydrological means in the post-crisis era. United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment, and Health. https://unu.edu/inweh/collection/global-water-bankruptcy
US Ditches World’s Biggest Climate Fund, a Day After Spurning Landmark Treaty
Summary
The US is exiting both the Green Climate Fund, which helps less affluent nations grapple with the effects of climate change, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the fund’s organization parent.
Key Points
The US gave up a board seat on the Green Climate Fund and also cancelled over $4 billion in funding committed by previous administrations.
“The fund has approved more than $19 billion for over 300 projects since 2015. Aiming to cut emissions and build resilience, it has funded efforts to reduce deforestation, support disaster warning systems and protect agriculture. One of its latest projects will provide about $300 million to Jordan for addressing persistent water shortages.”
Source
POLITICO is a for-profit news organization owned by Axel Springer SE, a “transatlantic media company headquartered in Berlin and New York.” They focus on political news but also frequently cover environmental headlines.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
As the funding landscape for climate change response continues to shift, collaborations between institutions and individuals across the global digital stewardship community will be all the more important to support workers and communities on the front lines of climate change. Institutions in less-impacted regions may also factor climate change risks when setting priorities for collections, partnerships, and preservation.
Full citation
Schonhardt, S. (2026, January 9). US ditches world’s biggest climate fund, a day after spurning landmark treaty. POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/08/us-ditches-worlds-biggest-climate-fund-in-storm-of-departures-by-trump-green-fund-00716136
America’s Dirtiest Carbon Polluters, Mapped to Ridiculous Precision
Summary
This article reviews a map created by the Vulcan Project (NASA, DOE, NOAA, and NIST) under the North American Carbon Program that quantifies North American fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions. It maps it out at a granular, street level. The Vulcan Project is doing this as the EPA is beginning to shirk its responsibility in gathering, mapping, and assessing CO2 emissions.
Key Points
The Vulcan dataset captures fossil fuel CO2 emissions at an unprecedented resolution, down to city block and road segment.
2022 data shows the highest emission “hot spots” correlate with areas of greater population density in the United States, including the East Coast and Dallas, Texas.
Vulcan may fill a gap as the EPA proposed ending its Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, as a way to save American businesses money. The main author of the Vulcan map and CO2 tracking work, Kevin Gurney, says he is committed to reporting on this data, regardless of what the government decides is mandatory.
Source
The article was published on Gizmodo, a tech and science online newsblog.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Understanding where the hottest areas in the United States are may be helpful for members of the digital preservation community This article discusses the current state of tracking CO2 emissions and how organizations, such as Vulcan, might need to fill in the gap if the traditional entities that collect fossil fuel emissions information are no longer required to do so.
Full citation
Lapointe, E. (2025, December 17). America’s Dirtiest Carbon Polluters, Mapped to Ridiculous Precision. Gizmodo. https://gizmodo.com/americas-dirtiest-carbon-polluters-mapped-to-ridiculous-precision-2000700924
Without Big Changes, This is What the Environment Will Look Like in 2050
Summary
If current environmental trends continue without major intervention, the state of the planet by 2050 will be significantly degraded. Projections foresee worsening climate impacts, increased pollution, and growing strain on ecosystems and human systems alike. This United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) article highlights the findings from the Global Environment Outlook 7 (GEO-7), a major scientific assessment produced by hundreds of researchers examining the future of the planet under current trends.
Key Points
Environmental conditions will continue to deteriorate, with escalating climate impacts contributing to significant biodiversity loss and exposing much of the world’s population to extreme heat and pollution.
Social and economic pressures will deepen, as productivity declines and inequality grows, leaving billions vulnerable to water shortages, food instability, and more frequent climate-related crises.
Source
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) functions as the UN’s central organization for environmental efforts, addressing critical challenges such as climate change, ecosystem and biodiversity decline, and the escalating effects of pollution and waste.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Environmental changes expected by 2050 could directly affect the stability and sustainability of digital collections. As climate change increases energy demands, extreme weather, and infrastructure risks, preservation work becomes more dependent on resilient systems, reliable storage environments, and thoughtful planning around long-term access. A changing environmental landscape can impact how and where digital content is stored and sustained.
Full citation
United Nations Environment Programme. (2025, December 15). Without big changes, this is what the environment will look like in 2050. United Nations Environment Programme.https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/without-big-changes-what-environment-will-look-2050
Are We All Living in Florida Now? The Rise of ‘Don’t Say Climate’ Politics.
Summary
US politicians are increasingly avoiding the words “climate change,” even as climate impacts worsen. Instead governments and communities are actively adapting to its impacts and using different terms like “wildfire safety” to describe climate adaptation activities.
Key Points
There has long been a tension between mitigation (i.e., cutting emissions) and adaptation activities. However, both things can happen at the same time.
“There’s an entrenched idea among environmentalists that discussions over how to adapt to climate change distract from the core mission of cutting planet-warming emissions, what’s known as mitigation. It’s sometimes perceived as a form of giving up. But studies have repeatedly shown that talking about adaptation doesn’t necessarily reduce public support for mitigation efforts. If anything, the challenges of adapting — the high price tag of raising roads in low-lying coastal areas, or the difficulties of relocating communities out of danger zones — highlight the need for reducing emissions.”
Source
Grist is a nonprofit journalism outlet that reports on climate change, environmental policy, and sustainability issues, and it is primarily funded through donations, foundation grants, and reader support rather than advertising.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Practitioners should be aware that when advocating for climate mitigation or adaptation activities, slight wording adjustments may be necessary depending on the political milieu of one’s organization. Additionally, adaptation issues may be (or become) more pressing than mitigation issues, but they shouldn’t be considered mutually exclusive, as adaptation measures can often build in emissions reductions.
Full citation
Yoder, K. (2025, November 10). Are we all living in Florida now? The rise of “don’t say climate” politics. Grist. https://grist.org/language/florida-adaptation-dont-say-climate-politics-bill-gates/
Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet
Update
The 2025 “Planetary Health Check” reveals that we have now crossed seven of the nine planetary boundaries. The newly crossed boundary is Ocean Acidification; the boundaries which were reported crossed in last year’s “Health Check” include: Climate Change, Biosphere Integrity, Land System Change, Freshwater Change, Modification of Biogeochemical Flows, and Introduction of Novel Entities. All boundary transgressions have worsened over the last year. One somewhat positive change reported is that the pace of forest loss (measured as part of Land System Change Boundary) has slowed.
To learn more about the annual “Planetary Health Check” series, see our Foundational Resources post.