January to March 2025
10 articles, featuring "Climate Models Can’t Explain What’s Happening to Earth."
Big banks predict catastrophic warming, with profit potential
Summary
Recent industry reports from Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and the Institute of International Finance show that the financial world is expecting global warming to bypass the 2° warming target proposed by the 2015 Paris agreement and reach 3° warming.
Key Points
Industry experts at financial institutions are preparing for the 2015 Paris agreement target of 2° celsius above the pre-industrial average to be surpassed, indicating that the world has failed to reduce emissions enough to realistically make that target.
Financial institutions are also planning ways to maintain profitability as global warming increases.
Source
E&E News by Politico. A section of Politico news dedicated to energy and the environment.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Planning activities should include forecasting the effects of higher temperature levels than 2° C, as there is growing consensus that the Paris agreement target will be surpassed.
Full Citation
Hiar, C. (2025, March 31). Big banks predict catastrophic warming, with profit potential. E&E News by POLITICO. https://www.eenews.net/articles/big-banks-predict-catastrophic-warming-with-profit-potential/
Reconsidering the macroeconomic damage of severe warming
Summary
This study examines whether the “interconnectedness of the global economy makes individual countries vulnerable to weather changes that impact other countries.”
Key Points
This study is important because it attempts to model how adverse weather changes in one country may affect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of other countries due to the interconnectivity of global supply chains.
Under certain emissions scenarios, the impact measured as GDP loss increased from ~11% to ~40% in 2100.
Source
“Environmental Research Letters covers all of environmental science, providing a coherent and integrated approach including research articles, perspectives and review articles.” Peer reviewed.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
As studies take more variables, like market interconnectivity, into account, the long-term economic impact of climate change is bleak. A dearth of funding available for digital preservation activities should be expected in the future.
Full Citation
Neal, T., Newell, B. R., & Pitman, A. (2025). Reconsidering the macroeconomic damage of severe warming. Environmental Research Letters, 20(4), 044029. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adbd58
Abrupt sea level rise and Earth’s gradual pole shift reveal permanent hydrological regime changes in the 21st century.
Summary
The investigators compiled soil moisture data from satellites, measurements of sea level, and observations of polar motion to estimate terrestrial water storage over the last four decades. This revealed a dramatic decline in water storage. Terrestrial water storage decreased by nearly twice as much as the amount of ice mass loss seen in Greenland over the same period.
Key Points
Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures have caused substantial changes in terrestrial water circulation and land surface water fluxes, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration, potentially leading to abrupt shifts in terrestrial water storage.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) soil moisture (SM) product reveals a sharp depletion during the early 21st century. During the period 2000 to 2002, soil moisture declined by approximately 1614 gigatonnes, much more than Greenland’s ice loss of about 900 gigatonnes (2002–2006).
From 2003 to 2016, SM depletion continued, with an additional 1009 gigatonne loss. This depletion is supported by two independent observations of global mean sea level rise (~4.4 millimeters) and the Earth’s pole shift (~45 centimeters). Precipitation deficits and stable evapotranspiration likely caused this decline, and SM has not recovered as of 2021, with future recovery unlikely under present climate conditions.
Source
Science is the peer-reviewed academic journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) and one of the world's top academic journals. This is behind a paywall but access is available through most colleges and universities.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
A depletion of water storage of this magnitude holds significance for our ability to sustain human life.
Full citation
Seo, K.-W., Ryu, D., Jeon, T., Youm, K., Kim, J.-S., Oh, E. H., Chen, J., Famiglietti, J. S., & Wilson, C. R. (2025). Abrupt sea level rise and Earth’s gradual pole shift reveal permanent hydrological regime changes in the 21st century. Science, 387(6741), 1408–1413. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adq6529
Carbon cycle feedbacks may amplify global heating risk, study warns
Summary
This study projects global temperature changes based on climate and carbon cycle feedbacks over a 1,000-year period. The findings demonstrate “that even small changes in emissions could lead to far greater warming than previously anticipated, further complicating efforts to meet the Paris Agreement targets” of limiting global warming to 2°C.
Key Points
This study is important because it projects temperatures over a far longer time frame than previous studies while accounting for the effects of climate and carbon cycle feedbacks, including methane. This is measured as the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), which estimates “the global temperature rise associated with a doubling of CO2 concentrations.”
Under certain emissions scenarios, global temperatures could “rise by more than 6°C above pre-industrial levels.”
Source
“Phys.org internet news portal provides the latest news on science.” The Phys.org article summarizes the findings from the “Interplay between climate and carbon cycle feedbacks could substantially enhance future warming” study, published in Environmental Research Letters. “Environmental Research Letters covers all of environmental science, providing a coherent and integrated approach including research articles, perspectives and review articles.” Peer reviewed.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Planning activities should account for scenarios in which global temperature increases exceed 2°C and factor for localized consequences.
Full citation
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. (2025, March 24). Carbon cycle feedbacks may amplify global heating risk, study warns. Phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2025-03-carbon-feedbacks-amplify-global.html
Reworking SIPs, AIPs, and DIPs: Saving space while reducing risk in digital processing
Summary
This blog post describes an institution's approach to restructuring their archival and access files. They revisited old architecture decisions where submission, archival, and dissemination information packages were identical and all contained both the archival and access copies of files. Removing the archival files from the dissemination package and the access files from the archival cuts storage needs in half.
Key Points
Revisiting old assumptions can be an opportunity to trim resource usage.
Source
Luke Menzies is the Head of Digitization and Digital Preservation (DnD) at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB). This was posted by the Society of American Archivists (SAA) Electronic Records Section's blog. SAA is a professional association for archivists.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This post connects program sustainability and resource usage with core preservation system design in a pragmatic manner.
Full citation
Menzies, Luke (2025, March 5). Reworking SIPs, AIPs, and DIPs: Saving Space While Reducing Risk in Digital Processing. BloggERS! https://saaers.wordpress.com/2025/03/05/reworking-sips-aips-and-dips-saving-space-while-reducing-risk-in-digital-processing/
Zero pollution monitoring and outlook 2025
Summary
Pollution is a significant driver of biodiversity loss and climate change, impacting not only ecosystems but also economies, public finances, and public health. This report, the second edition of the Zero Pollution Monitoring and Outlook Report, highlights the urgency of Europe's efforts to meet its zero pollution targets for 2030—just five years away. Building upon the first report published in 2022, Zero pollution monitoring assessment — European Environment Agency, this edition offers an update on progress toward the 2030 goals outlined in the Zero Pollution Action Plan. It also provides deeper insights into the critical connections between the health of ecosystems and the well-being of human populations. The European Union's new The Zero Pollution Dashboard allows users to track progress between regions across Europe.
Key Points
The EU is on track to achieve nearly half of its zero pollution targets by 2030, with significant strides in air quality (resulting in fewer premature deaths), pesticide use reduction, and marine litter control. However, several critical targets are still off track, notably in the reduction of microplastics and municipal waste.
The report underscores that insufficient action has been taken to tackle the EU's high consumption levels, which remain a primary driver of pollution—particularly in sectors like food, housing, and mobility. Between 2010 and 2020, the reduction of major air pollutants slowed compared to previous decades, with some pollutants even increasing between 2020 and 2021. Furthermore, as Europe seeks greater self-sufficiency and reduces dependence on international partners, the rising demand for natural resource extraction is expected to lead to higher emissions.
The report calls on the EU and its Member States to fully implement relevant legislation, tighten pollution-related regulations, and foster stronger collaboration among industries, public administrations, and civil society to accelerate progress toward achieving environmental targets.
Source
This report was prepared jointly by the European Environment Agency (EEA) and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC).
Relevance to Digital Preservation
While government policies may not fully achieve all their targets, they have demonstrated success in reducing pollution. This is particularly relevant to digital preservation, as it illustrates that well-designed policies can promote growth while addressing environmental concerns. Striking a balance between growth and sustainability is essential to ensuring the long-term viability of digital preservation efforts.
Full citation
European Environment Agency. (2025). Zero pollution monitoring and outlook 2025 (EEA-JRC Report 13/2024). https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/publications/zero-pollution-monitoring-and-outlook-report
Global warming has accelerated: Are the United Nations and the public well-informed?
Summary
Global temperature increased over the last two years, above what was expected by many scientists. Hansen et al. detail how the recent reduction in shipping aerosols has led to changes in clouds, causing less reflectivity of sunlight and more absorption of sun-generated heat into the atmosphere. The unexpected increase in temperatures highlights that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) modeling for climate sensitivity underestimates the effect of aerosols, which have effectively masked previous warming. The article discusses policy changes that could help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, different energy sources, and solar radiation modification as a means of temporarily cooling the earth while transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Key Points
Hansen et al. expect the earth’s temperature to remain at or near the new 1.5°C warming of the past two years, instead of falling during the cooling La Niña phase, as has happened in past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)patterns.
In addition to effectively breaching the 1.5°C warming benchmark, Hansen et al. posit that the IPCC models have underestimated the climate’s sensitivity to aerosols, leading to an underestimate of climate sensitivity.
This underestimate could mean that tipping points, such as a slowdown in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), may be breached earlier, for example, by 2050 instead of by 2100 or later.
Current emissions are increasing at nearly the rate outlined in Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the worse-case scenario.
The article includes Hansen’s account of his experiences sounding the alarm about global warming and trying to affect policy based on his scientific observations, both politically and within the IPCC.
Source
Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. From the journal description: “Environment, now in its seventh decade of publication, analyzes environmental and policy challenges with peer-reviewed articles and commentaries from highly respected researchers and practitioners who provide a broad range of international perspectives and offer appropriate actions at local and global levels.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Tracking the degree of warming is essential in preparing for proper adaptations to climate change. This article underscores that the IPCC forecasts, which are widely used in modeling tools, are inaccurate as they underestimate climate sensitivity to GHGs. The political issues detailed in the article are also of interest as they relay previous resistance to changes that may help mitigate emissions and suggest future barriers to implementing changes which could improve the outcome. Digital preservationists should account for these known limitations and issues when assessing climate-related risks and determining preservation strategies.
Full citation
Hansen, J. E., Kharecha, P., Sato, M., Tselioudis, G., Kelly, J., Bauer, S. E., Ruedy, R., Jeong, E., Jin, Q., Rignot, E., Velicogna, I., Schoeberl, M. R., von Schuckmann, K., Amponsem, J., Cao, J., Keskinen, A., Li, J., & Pokela, A. (2025). Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed? Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 67(1), 6–44. https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494
Climate models can’t explain what’s happening to Earth: Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on.
Summary
Fifty years of modelling the earth’s future climate and scientists do not know what is coming next. Scientists are increasingly caught off guard by extreme weather events, as even the most advanced climate models struggle to predict what is coming. City planners, insurance companies, and farmers urgently need reliable forecasts, but daily temperature records are already outpacing predictions. Since the 1970s, scientists have acknowledged that all models are flawed, yet they continue refining them to improve their usefulness. However, critical factors like cloud formation remain poorly understood, and global climate models often fail to function at the scale of human life. While these models can be valuable when combined with local data and expert knowledge, there are not enough scientists available to help interpret the data or select the right models. Early climate models primarily focused on understanding temperature change and were less capable of predicting secondary effects, such as ocean temperature fluctuations, which are still not adequately factored in. As a result, current models provide only a partial picture of the future, and underestimating risk could be far more dangerous than overestimating it.
Key Points
Trees and land absorbed much less carbon than in 2023 according to research published in October 2024.
Early climate models primarily focused on understanding temperature change and were less capable of predicting secondary effects, such as ocean temperature fluctuations, which are still not adequately factored in.
Source
The Atlantic, first published in 1857, is a popular and literary magazine whose continued core principles since its founding are as follows: “reason should always guide opinion; ideas have consequences, sometimes world-historical consequences; the knowledge we have about the world is partial and provisional, and subject to analysis, scrutiny, and revision.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
While the article does not directly address digital preservation, it highlights an important point for digital preservationists: climate modelling is only as reliable as the scientists who build and analyze models and the data that is interpreted. This insight underscores the need for careful, informed decision-making in digital preservation practices.
Full citation
Schlanger, Z. (2025, January 6). Climate models can’t explain what’s happening to Earth: Global warming is moving faster than the best models can keep a handle on. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/01/climate-models-earth/681207/
Next to fall: The climate-driven insurance crisis is here—and getting worse
Summary
The U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget collected data from the majority of homeowners' insurance companies on rates of non-renewal. The states and counties with the worst rates of non-renewal tended to be either coastal, low-lying delta, or have a greater exposure to wildfires. The report expounds on the knock-on effects of unaffordable home insurance and the potential threats posed to the U.S. economy.
Key Points
Climate change is not just an environmental risk but an economic one.
Counties with the highest climate-related risks are suffering increased rates of non-renewal of homeowners' insurance policies and rising premiums that far outpace inflation.
Insurance issues in at-risk counties spill over into other counties in the same states and the larger housing market which in turn threatens the entire country's economy, as it did during the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008-09.
Source
U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Institutions must factor in economic stability as well as environmental; while an institution's or storage site's geographic area may be somewhat insulated from disasters, it is difficult to limit exposure to the conditions of the larger U.S. economy. Furthermore, the costs and mere availability of insurance is an increasingly pertinent factor in decision making.
Full citation
U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget. (2024). Next to Fall: The Climate-Driven Insurance Crisis is Here—And Getting Worse [Staff Report]. https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/next_to_fall_the_climate-driven_insurance_crisis_is_here__and_getting_worse.pdf
State of the climate 2024. Update for COP29
Summary
This update highlights alarming climate trends. Greenhouse gas concentrations reached record levels in 2024. Global temperatures from January to September 2024 were 1.54° C above pre-industrial levels, making 2024 the hottest year on record. Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extents were well below average, and glaciers lost significant mass. Ocean heat content and sea levels continued to rise. Extreme weather events—including heat waves, floods, and droughts—caused extensive damage worldwide. The report emphasizes the urgent need for climate action, adaptation, and enhanced climate services.
Key Points
Record high temperatures and greenhouse gases: 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures 1.54° C above pre-industrial levels. Greenhouse gas concentrations, including CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide, reached record levels in 2024.
Significant ice and glacier loss: The extent of both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice was well below average in 2024. Glaciers lost an unprecedented amount of ice, equivalent to about five times the amount of water in the Dead Sea.
Extreme weather events: 2024 saw numerous extreme weather events, including record-breaking rainfall, flooding, heat waves, and wildfires, causing extensive damage and displacement worldwide.
In the last five years, there has been substantial progress in climate service capacity globally. 108 countries reported having a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System.
Source
This is an annual report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). In the foreword it is noted that the WMO "has produced a State of the Global Climate report every year since 1993 to provide an annual summary and update of key climate indicators. These reports complement the more detailed, less frequent synthesis provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports."
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Data centers in certain geographic regions may be subject to more violent storms, rising sea levels, and wildfires. The report does not directly address digital preservation, but is an important update on the climate challenges we are facing. It also notes the increase of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems, which may allow digital repositories to plan for potential disasters in a timely fashion.
Full citation
State of the Climate 2024 Update for COP29. (2024, November 8). World Meteorological Organization. https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-climate-2024-update-cop29