April to June 2024
Eight articles, featuring "Climate Change Indicators in the U.S."
Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Fifth Edition
Summary
This report articulates how climate change has affected and continues to affect the United States; the magnitude and significance of the changes; and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. The report covers many different indicators, summarizing a large body of current research, with many implications for social and infrastructure stability.
Key Points
While U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have declined 3% since 1990, global emissions continue to rise.
Heat waves are more frequent, long-lasting, and intense than they used to be, which causes increased deaths and strains the electricity grid as buildings are cooled.
Climate change increases the odds of extreme weather and flooding.
Source
US Environmental Protection Agency.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
Helps with understanding what potential threats an institution and its digital assets face, such as power grid disruption or extreme weather events.
Full citation
US EPA, O. (2024, June 13). Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Fifth Edition [Reports and Assessments]. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-united-states-fifth-edition
Research to confront climate change complexity: Intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance
Summary
To support an equitable climate future, funders, universities, publishers, and professional societies must actively develop incentives, training programs, capacity-building initiatives, and networking opportunities that promote integrated and collaborative knowledge processes.
Key Points
Effective, inclusive responses to climate challenges require collaborative approaches that unite diverse knowledge and interest holders to develop integrated knowledge and solutions tailored to specific contexts.
Most existing modelling has focused on physical infrastructure and environmental processes, not integrating sociopolitical, perceptional, and behavioural influences on decision-making and adaptation. Decision-makers have overlooked inequities in the distribution of climate-related outcomes.
Source
Earth’s Future is a peer-reviewed journal.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This article may assist in drafting policies, guidelines, frameworks, etc. It offers practical insights into creating equitable climate strategies, making it valuable for shaping policy.
Full citation
Mach, K. J., Jagannathan, K., Shi, L., Turek-Hankins, L. L., Arnold, J. R., Brelsford, C., Flores, A. N., Gao, J., Martín, C. E., McCollum, D. L., & others. (2024). Research to confront climate change complexity: Intersectionality, integration, and innovative governance. Earth's Future. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004392
Supercharged thunderstorms: have we underestimated how climate change drives extreme rain and floods?
Summary
This is an Australian based article explaining that current storm models do not account for the increasing violence of local, brief storms. Climate change is supercharging thunderstorms, adding moisture and heat and ultimately causing extreme floods. A hotter atmosphere has the capacity to hold more moisture. But the condensation of water vapor to make rain droplets releases heat. This, in turn, can fuel stronger convection in thunderstorms, which can then dump substantially more rain regardless of the number of storms occurring or the period of time in which the rain falls. Many models for climate projections are not suitable for directly simulating thunderstorms. That’s because the convection processes needed to make thunderstorms form happen on much smaller scales than this. There’s now a concerted effort underway to perform more model simulations at very fine scales, so we can improve the modeling of convection. Recent results from these very fine scale models for Europe suggest convection will play a more important role in triggering extreme rainfall including in combined storms, such as thunderstorms mingling with low-pressure systems and other combinations.
Key Points
Climate change is supercharging thunderstorms and causing extreme floods due to increased heating of the atmosphere.
The European model of storm prediction may be more accurate in future than current models.
Source
The Conversation. The non-peer-reviewed, academia-related publication is freely available through a Creative Commons license. Its target audience is the general public. It aims to:
Inform public debate with knowledge-based journalism that is responsible, ethical and supported by evidence.
Unlock the knowledge of researchers and academics to provide the public with clarity and insight into society’s biggest problems.
Provide a platform where experts around the world can share knowledge, discuss problems and identify sustainable solutions.
Provide a fact-based and editorially independent forum, free of commercial or political bias.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This article is relevant to institutions at risk for strong rainstorms, those in charge of disaster preparedness, and institutions with data centers in storm-prone areas.
Full citation
Dowdy, A., Wasko, C., Catto, J., & Westra, S. (2024, May 9). Supercharged thunderstorms: have we underestimated how climate change drives extreme rain and floods? The Conversation. http://theconversation.com/supercharged-thunderstorms-have-we-underestimated-how-climate-change-drives-extreme-rain-and-floods-228896
World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
Summary
Leading climate scientists polled believe that global temperatures will rise at least 2.5 degrees Celsius, greater than the 1.5 target chosen to limit the consequences of climate change. At these temperatures, scientists foresee a "semi-dystopian" world of weather-related catastrophes and disrupted food production. However, the predicted heat does not mean we should give up on climate change. Reasons for lack of action cited were a lack of political will and corporate interests, such as the fossil fuel industry.
Key Points
Climate scientists on average are pessimistic about the future due to a lack of urgency from governments and corporations.
It's still not too late to reverse global warming processes or at least limit the temperature increase.
Source
The Guardian is a premier British news source.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
A more severe temperature rise than anticipated could have disastrous consequences for institutional stability and it behooves digital preservationists to advocate for sensible energy policy.
Full citation
Carrington, D. (2024, May 8). World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/08/world-scientists-climate-failure-survey-global-temperature
Assessing Risk to National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change: 2023 Risk Assessment Update
Summary
This is a US government report evaluating the risks climate hazards pose to National Critical Functions (NCFs) which are defined as, “the functions of government and the private sector so vital to the United States that their disruption, corruption, or dysfunction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof.” (page ix.) Risks were rated on a scale from a rating of 1 (no disruption or normal operations) to 5 (critical disruption). The projected climate hazards were: drought, extreme cold, extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, severe storm systems, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and wildfires. The threat of these hazards occurring between today and 2050 and 2100 was projected using two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: current GHG levels (RCP 4.5) and a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). In addition, there was an analysis of interdependencies among the NCFs to “characterize potential for cascading disruptions due to climate change” (page x). This study assesses national risk; only those hazards that create issues across the nation are rated at the higher levels. So, for example, the recent interruptions in NCFs (like power outages) caused by Hurricane Helene, would not rate higher than a level 3 because even though the interruptions are severe, they only affect a limited area of the country.
Key Points
The Provide Information Technology and Services NCF is considered highly vulnerable (rating of 4 through 2050 and 5 through 2100) because of the geographic concentration of hardware manufacturing, especially semiconductor manufacturing. A major disruption of this NCF means that extended shortages could cause domestic functions and industries to become nonviable. A Critical disruption means that the country cannot acquire adequate supply with cascading devastating effects on nearly all domestic industries and functions that are highly dependent on IT.
Other NCFs expected to be affected by climate change which will also affect digital preservation activities include the ability to transmit and distribute electricity, and the ability to provide wireline, wireless, and cable access network services. These all received a Moderate Disruption rating. This means that routine operational needs will be met in most but not all of the country. As mentioned above, this is how the interruptions caused by Hurricane Helene would be rated.
Source
This research was sponsored by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) which is part of the US Department of Homeland Security and conducted in the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division, which operates The Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center. It was undertaken in response to President Biden’s Executive Order 14008, (Jan 27, 2021) which directs the Secretary of Homeland Security to “consider the implications of climate change in the Arctic, along our Nation’s borders, and to National Critical Functions.”
Relevance to Digital Preservation
As outlined above, climate change hazards will critically affect digital preservation activities, namely the ability to procure hardware/storage, but also networks and electrical grid services.
Full citation
Miro, M. E., Resetar, S. A., Lauland, A., Metz, D., Wolf, V., Ali, R., Balagna, J., Barnosky, J. T., Briggs, R. J., Chan, E. W., Fischer, S. H., Hodgson, Q. E., Kirkwood, G., Kolb, C., Kramer, J. W., Lee, J., Leuschner, K. J., Prier, S., Stalczynski, M., … Wong, B. (2024). Assessing Risk to National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change: 2023 Risk Assessment Update. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1645-8.html
The economic commitment of climate change
Summary
This is a macroeconomic study projecting the cost of damages from temperatures and precipitation due to climate change. The study finds that, “the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices.” Essentially, paying for the damages caused by climate change is expected to be part of our future. The poor will be affected the most: the largest losses are found at lower latitudes (i.e., the global south) which has lower income and lower historical emissions. Mitigation efforts will not prevent the economic losses caused by climate change (at least through 2050).
Key Points
This study finds that the global GDP will face a reduction of 19% by 2050 regardless of whether we reduce emissions or not.
Source
Nature is a weekly international peer-reviewed journal which publishes in all fields of science and technology.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
The long-term economic outlook is bleak: an almost 20% reduction in income will affect all of the various income streams that digital preservation relies on: taxes, tuition fees, etc.
Full citation
Kotz, M., Levermann, A., & Wenz, L. (2024). The economic commitment of climate change. Nature, 628(8008), 551–557. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07219-0
Environmental Impact and Digital Preservation
Summary
Considering climate change is essential for digital preservation practice since it aims to preserve materials for a future that climate change threatens. Climate change threatens digital preservation by disrupting energy grids, straining staffing, and endangering coastal locations. Institutions can contribute to climate change if their resources are applied thoughtlessly.
Key Points
Many cultural heritage organizations have not considered their impact in terms of emissions from energy consumption or water needed to cool data centers.
Organizations should be more discerning with their selection of materials for preservation and identify materials that benefit from long-term but not permanent preservation.
Source
The Digital Preservation Coalition is an international charitable foundation which supports digital preservation and helps its members around the world to deliver resilient long-term access to digital content and services. Eira Tansey is an archivist and researcher with over a decade of experience in academic libraries.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
This work directly engages with digital preservationists and how their practices relate to, and contribute to, environmental degradation.
Full citation
Tansey, E. (2024). Environmental Impact and Digital Preservation. Digital Preservation Coalition. https://doi.org/10.7207/twgn24-01
Disaster resilient infrastructure: A bibliometric analysis of global research trends
Summary
This article is a bibliometric analysis of 278 published journal articles on disaster resilient infrastructure (2004-2023). It is an evaluation of research on the subject. Some specific goals of the study were to assess:
Annual publication trends and the countries contributing the most research.
The leading sources of publications.
The most cited work in disaster-resilient infrastructure.
The most frequently explored themes within the topic.
Recent research, particularly from 2020 to 2022, has emphasized resilience against disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The Sustainability journal was the most prolific publisher of articles on disaster-resilient infrastructure.
Key Points
The period from 2020 to 2022 saw the highest volume of research on disaster-resilient infrastructure, with the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan being the top contributors.
The most cited publication on this topic is "Power Systems Resilience Assessment: Hardening and Smart Operational Enhancement Strategies" by Panteli, Trakas, Mancarella, and Hatziargyriou (2017), published in Proceedings of the IEEE (105(7), 1202-1213, doi: 10.1109/JPROC.2017.2691357).
Source
IOP Conference Series is a journal under Institute of Physics Publishing. Further information on peer review is available at IOP Publishing.
Relevance to Digital Preservation
The bibliography studied will be of most value, as it cites the most current disaster resilient infrastructure articles.
Full citation
Adejola, F. O., Ngaunje, S., Ogunlolu, A., Aliu, U. I., Ajiferuke, O. O., Adetoro, O. C., Omoniwa, F. H., Sofolahan, O., Miju, R. B., & Olagunju, O. (2024). Disaster resilient infrastructure: A bibliometric analysis of global research trends. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1342, 012032. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1342/1/012032